Potential climatic and elevational range shifts in the Italian narrow endemic Bellevalia webbiana (Asparagaceae) under climate change scenarios
نویسندگان
چکیده
The Webb’s hyacinth ( Bellevalia webbiana Parl., Asparagaceae) is an Italian narrow endemic species, listed as Endangered (EN A2c) in the IUCN Global Red List of Threatened Species. range this bulbous perennial herb restricted to two disjunct areas Central Italy, separated by mountain ridge Northern Apennine. To evaluate impact climate change on we used Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) predict future potential distribution under different scenarios, through Maximum entropy algorithm. estimated highlights vulnerability effects change. current Area Of Occupancy (AOO) (992 2×2 km cells) forecast dramatically decrease 2041–2100, scenarios SSP3-7.0 (2070 = –249, 2100 –682) and SSP5-8.5 –372, –948). In all predicted shifts towards higher elevations, located main which species currently occurs. This could imply a loss genetic differentiation documented at population level. overcome these problems, addition assisted colonization, ex situ conservation programme should be planned.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Nature and Conservation
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2318-2881']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3897/natureconservation.50.91265